What does the securities company think after the peak discharge session?
VnEconomy introduces comments and investment recommendations of some securities companies on market developments on September 12, 2023.
At the end of the trading session on September 11, VN-Index decreased 17.85 points, equivalent to 1.44%, to 1223.63 points. In the same direction, HnxIndex decreased 4.87 points, equivalent to 1.9%, to 251.33 points.
VN-Index is experiencing short-term weakness
(Bao Viet Securities Joint Stock Company – BVSC)
“VN-Index is experiencing short-term weakness when there is a divergence between price and volume. Although this signal does not affect the index’s medium-term uptrend, it implies the risk of a market correction before continuing to conquer higher levels in the near future.
For activities of selling to reduce the proportion or restructuring the portfolio, investors can take advantage of market increases to consider implementing. For trading activities during this period, investors temporarily hold an observation position or consider opening a buying position when VN-Index drops to the support area of 1190-1205 points.
VN-Index has not been able to successfully conquer the resistance level of 1,250
(Bank for Investment and Development of Vietnam Securities Joint Stock Company – BSC)
“VN-Index decreased nearly 18 points today, closing at 1,223.63 points. Market breadth tilted to the negative side with 17/18 sectors decreasing, of which the sharpest decrease was the Basic Resources sector. On the contrary, Oil and Gas is the only industry trading positively today.
Regarding foreign transactions, today they were net sellers on the HSX and net buyers on the HNX. Thus, the index has not been able to successfully conquer the resistance level of 1,250. Today’s down session had large liquidity, showing that there are many risks to the market in the short term. The next developments of the market depend on the strength of investors’ bottom-fishing cash flow.
The market continues its corrective trend before the short-term resistance level of 1,250 points
(Saigon – Hanoi Securities Joint Stock Company – SHS)
“The market continued its adjustment trend before the short-term resistance level of 1,250 points as we warned. At the end of the first trading session of the week, VN-Index dropped quite sharply -17.85 points (-1.44%) and closed. door at 1,223.63 points.
From a short-term perspective, the risk of the market shaking and adjusting after a recovery and the index approaching the short-term resistance threshold of 1,250 points is a normal development according to technical analysis and has been mentioned by us. in recent news. However, we expect that the current shaking area will not be as strong as the previous adjustment period and the fluctuation amplitude may gradually narrow to form a new accumulation base. The index’s near support threshold is around 1,215 points and further is around 1,200 points.
From a medium-term perspective, the market’s uptrend is still well maintained, but the market is facing two important resistance levels around 1,250 points and 1,300 points further, so Vn-Index is shaking and forming an accumulation base first. These resistance levels are normal and necessary to help the market continue to accumulate internal strength to maintain the uptrend. In the immediate future, the market will need to form a new accumulation area and this will take a lot of time.
Regarding macro, the central exchange rate today (September 11) was announced by the State Bank (SBV) at 24,005 VND/USD, an increase of 12 VND compared to last weekend. In August, the central exchange rate increased by 0.92% and at today’s level the exchange rate has increased by 1.66% compared to the beginning of the year. Normally, the demand for foreign currency tends to increase in the months from the end of the third quarter to the end of the year to serve the needs of import and export, and the State Bank’s management is quite flexible to maintain the exchange rate within the control range based on The foundation of positive foreign currency supply comes from trade surplus and FDI disbursement.
In the short term, the market is likely to continue to shake and adjust, so short-term investors need to maintain a portfolio with a low proportion. For medium and long-term investors, investors continue to hold well-structured portfolios according to our newsletters and recommendations. In case there is a need for additional disbursement, investors should patiently wait for the accumulation base to form next. The target for medium and long-term investment disbursement should be aimed at leading stock groups, stocks that are accumulating and Not subject to deep adjustment, there is expectation that business results will continue to grow this year. The medium- and long-term disbursement strategy should be to increase disbursement during periods of market decline.”
Pressure from the selling side prevailed and left open the risk of extending the decline in the coming sessions
(KB Vietnam Securities Joint Stock Company – KBSV)
“After opening the gap to increase at the beginning of the session, VN-Index gradually weakened and reversed to decrease with the amplitude widening at the end of the session. The formation of the marubozu candlestick pattern and the sudden increase in liquidity shows that the pressure from the selling side is completely dominant and leaves open the risk of extending the decline in the sessions.
The support level near 1220 (+-5) and deeper at 119x is expected to act as a notable support point for the index. Investors are recommended to sell down the proportion in early recovery periods and only open and buy part of the trading proportion again in support adjustment periods.
The market will likely continue to correct in the next session
(Yuanta Securities Vietnam Company – YSVN)
“We think that the market will likely continue to correct in the next session and may soon return to upward momentum after the indexes test the 20-session moving average in the next session. At the same time, we assess that short-term risks are still low and the market is still in a period of strong fluctuations in a positive direction, meaning the correction could quickly end. The VN-Index is trading in the support zone of 1,223 – 1,230 points, but the price chart of this index may retest the 20-session moving average during the session (ie the level of 1,215 points). In addition, the sentiment indicator dropped sharply, showing that investors are becoming cautious again with current market developments.
The short-term trend of the general market still remains at UP. Therefore, in the short term, if the VN-Index narrows its decline and maintains the support area of 1,216 – 1,215 points, investors can consider increasing the proportion of stocks, otherwise investors should temporarily Stop buying new and wait to buy at a lower level.”
VN-Index will continue its adjustment trend to the target of 1,216 – 1,218
(SSI Securities Joint Stock Company – SSI)
“VN-Index closed at 1,223.63 points, down -17.85 points (-1.44%). Trading volume reached 1.3 billion matched units, 25% higher than the previous session. On the chart, VN-Index, after not being able to surpass the 1,250 zone, reversed strongly. Technical indicators such as RSI and ADX show signs of narrowing short-term growth strength.
Thus, VN-Index will continue the adjustment trend to the target of 1,216 – 1,218. Here, the index can temporarily stop the decline and regain balance.”
The market still needs 3-5 sessions to find balance before having a new increase
(Vietnam Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade Securities Company Limited – VCBS)
“From a technical perspective, VN-Index ended the session creating a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern, signaling a strong shaking rhythm. In terms of the daily chart, the MACD indicator is showing signs of creating 2 peaks from the beginning of August to the present time, showing that the market is somewhat out of breath in its attempt to rise above the old peak area. Although the DI- indicator has increased sharply, the ADX indicator is still on a downward trend, so it can be expected that VN-Index will maintain the nearest support around 1200 – 1210, similar to the MA20 moving average.
In the positive case when demand returns, the market still needs 3-5 sessions to find balance before having a new increase. We recommend that short-term investors wait patiently, closely follow the market, especially at the 1210 point area, and limit disbursement to catch the bottom early.”
It is forecasted that VN-Index may decrease to 1,218 points
(VietCap Securities Joint Stock Company – VCSC)
“The selling force increased quite strongly in the afternoon session, overwhelming the demand force, making the stock indices on both exchanges quite strong. The graphs of VN-Index, VN30, VNMidcap, VNSmallcap or HNX-Index all form long red candles accompanied by an increase in trading volume.
The down session caused the VN-Index and VN30 to close below the 10-day EMA support to change the technical signal in a negative direction (from Positive to Neutral). Meanwhile, the remaining indexes only breached the 5-day EMA support, sending a warning signal of weakness to the current Positive signal.
It is forecasted that tomorrow, VN-Index may fall to the EMA20 support level at 1,218 points before recovery efforts appear to test the EMA5 and EMA10 lines in the 1,226-1,232 point area. If the buying force at high price areas is not strong enough to help VN-Index overcome this resistance, VN-Index may decrease again later to retest the EMA20 line. Closing below this support will signal the end of the short-term uptrend starting from mid-August. At that time, the index representing the HOSE floor will continue to decline to the 1,200 point area or lower milestones.”
Market assessments of securities companies quoted by VnEconomy are only valid as a source of reference information. Securities companies may have conflicts of interest with investors when making comments.
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